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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we look at where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|