🔗 Share this article From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Fall of Maduro. A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period. That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The mission was executed competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. Allies in Decline For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington. Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence. “For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any tangible support to a country so far away is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, shapes outcomes. “The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”