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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.