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Colombian President, Gustavo Petro, is embarking on a high-stakes trip to Washington to meet American leader Donald Trump. This constitutes the initial face-to-face encounter for the two leaders following an extended period of escalating strains and heated rhetoric.

Topics for Discussion

Venezuela, drug trafficking, oil, regional stability, and American military actions on suspected drug vessels are expected to be top on the list of topics when they gather at the White House on Tuesday.

A History of Strained Relations

Although the two men were polite in a phone call after a recent US military operation, Petro has since stated he feels there is a "serious risk" of armed intervention targeting Colombia. Trump, for his part, has previously commented that a such action in Colombia "sounds good".

Tuesday's meeting comes after months of the two presidents exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly condemned repeated US strikes on alleged narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the White House's border policies.

"He changed his attitude," the US President was quoted as saying prior to the Washington meeting.

Points of Contention

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's government of not doing enough to stop the trafficking of narcotics heading north, and has vowed to extend military actions to terrestrial objectives throughout the region.

However, the hostility appeared to subside after a "cordial" telephone conversation involving the two leaders, which a source from Bogotá later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".

Mediating Role

According to diplomatic sources, one man – US Senator Rand Paul – was pivotal in facilitating the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the lawmaker was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relations to improve."

Border Security and the ELN

Prior to Tuesday's meeting, officials from Bogotá stated that much of the conversation would center on mutual US and Colombian worries over stability in the neighboring country, with which Colombia shares an long frontier.

Much of that frontier is controlled of the ELN. This Colombian guerrilla group, established in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, racketeering, contraband, and unlawful extraction in border states and allegedly works with corrupt elements within the Venezuelan government.

For Trump, addressing the challenge of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing security for US companies involved in Venezuela's oil industry. Experts note that the ELN has the potential to disrupt economic ambitions by attacking foreign investors and staff, as it has previously done in Colombia.

Drug War Cooperation

An similarly urgent issue for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest producer of the narcotic. Earlier this year, Petro instituted a halt on intelligence sharing with US authorities after comments from Washington.

The US has, conversely, officially listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in controlling the narcotics trade. It has also imposed restrictions on figures in Petro's government, encompassing the leader and his relatives.

"There is no fight without Colombia," stated a analyst. "The threat to sever Colombian intelligence could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Potential Outcomes

Despite multiple areas for cooperation, the potential for a confrontation remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a former diplomat. "My suspicion is that Petro will walk in with some concessions to avoid Trump's anger... But one never knows."

For the Colombian leader, even a difficult encounter could be advantageous. His time in office concludes soon, and the results of the meeting could impact the electoral chances of his chosen candidate.

"In some ways, he's kind of in a favorable position," said a Latin American studies professor. "A positive outcome undermines criticism... If talks sour, he's defending Colombian interests. He could use that in his favor."